Will An Upgrade Send T-Mobile Higher?

With shares of T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) trading around $26, is TMUS an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

T-Mobile offers mobile communications services under the T-Mobile brands in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Its service offerings include postpaid and prepaid wireless voice, messaging and data services, mobile broadband, and wholesale wireless services. The company has been increasing its user base at great rates, and a recent takeover rumor may be the fuel it needs for the stock to soar higher.

Oppenheimer (NYSE:OPY) upgraded T-Mobile to Outperform from Perform with a $32 price target, citing improved postpaid additions, better-than-expected cost savings, and indications that pricing will remain stable.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

T-Mobile stock has been surging higher since its initial public offering. The stock is now trading near highs for the year and looks poised to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, T-Mobile is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of T-Mobile options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
T-Mobile Options	42.51%	90%	88%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
October Options	Flat	Average
November Options	Flat	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on T-Mobile’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for T-Mobile look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4	2012 Q3
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	N/A	-16.67%	-65.50%	173.70%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	27.54%	0.82%	3.73%	4.46%
Earnings Reaction	4.12%	-0.78%	N/A	N/A

T-Mobile has seen mixed earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about T-Mobile’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has T-Mobile stock done relative to its peers, Verizon (NYSE:VZ), AT&T (NYSE:T), Sprint (NYSE:S), and sector?

	T-Mobile	Verizon	AT&T	Sprint	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	31.19%	7.83%	0.89%	6.85%	11.69%

T-Mobile has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

T-Mobile is attempting to revolutionize the communications industry by providing less-restricted products and services to consumers and companies. A recent upgrade has investors buzzing about the stock. The stock has been surging higher since its IPO and looks ready to continue. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenues have been rising, which has produced conflicting feelings among investors in the company. Relative to its peers and sector, T-Mobile has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for T-Mobile to OUTPERFORM.